2.a. What is five plus two times six minus three? Answer: 14
2.b. What should you do? Will changing your mind affect your odds of winning the million dollars? Or should you just stick with door number three?
Answer: Eliminating door number 2 just increased my odds of winning because then there is a 50% chance that the door I chose has the million dollars. Door number 1 may have a booby prize or the million dollars, but door number 3 - the door I chose - also has that same possibility of having the booby prize or the million dollars. Since it's a 50-50 situation, choosing whichever door wouldn't really matter. I would choose door number 3 if that's what my instinct tells me, or I would choose door number 1 if I feel that it's a good move to change. For me it's really a matter of in which situation would I feel worse afterwards. Would I feel worse that I lost knowing I stuck by a wrong decision the whole time, or would I feel worse knowing that I had the right decision and then I changed it the last minute? Personally, the latter would probably feel worse.
P.S. After answering I was very intrigued and looked up this paradox. And I was wrong. I knew something had to be wrong. You wouldn't give it as an example or wouldn't even bother to warn us about thinking hard about this one, if it were that simple and obvious. And so I read that this is an example of conditional probability. I didn't get a high grade in my Statistics class back in college so no wonder I did not get this one. It took time for me to understand it and below is the simplest way I can explain it.
Facts:
Let's say that Door 1 - is the $1 million, Door 2 - is the duck, Door 3 - is another duck.
The host will ALWAYS show me ONE wrong door (either Door 2 or Door 3) after I've made my first decision.
Goal:
The question here is do I STAY with my original decision or do I CHANGE it - which of the two has a higher probability for success?
TO STAY A:
I choose Door 1, Host shows me incorrect Door 2 (or 3) so I THINK I have 50-50 chance so I decide to stay - and I win.
TO STAY B:
I choose Door 2, Host shows me incorrect Door 3 so I THINK I have 50-50 chance so I decide to stay - and I lose.
TO STAY C:
I choose Door 3, Host shows me incorrect Door 2 so I THINK I have 50-50 chance so I decide to stay - and I lose.
*STAYING thus has a 1/3 probability for success.
TO CHANGE A:
I choose Door 1, Host shows me incorrect Door 2 (or 3) so I THINK I have 50-50 chance so I decide to change - and I lose (whichever the case because Door 2 and 3 are both incorrect).
TO CHANGE B:
I choose Door 2, Host shows me incorrect Door 3 so I THINK I have 50-50 chance so I decide to change to Door 1 - and I win.
TO CHANGE C:
I choose Door 3, Host shows me incorrect Door 2 so I THINK I have 50-50 chance so I decide to change to Door 1 - and I win.
*CHANGING thus has 2/3 probability of success.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
I am but human.
I have committed slips and mistakes in my life, some funny while some completely embarrassing.
One example may be categorized as a Description Error.
I used to work for an I.T. company and I was assigned particularly to the online movie ticketing project (similar to Fandango.com in the U.S.). One of my responsibilities was to do email technical support. It was a stressful day for me and a customer, among many others, emailed regarding a request to unlock his account. A customer who does not claim his/her ticket reservation for 3 consecutive times will have his/her account locked. It can be unlocked only by paying a certain fee.
One customer emailed requesting that his account be unlocked for so and so reasons (I don't remember what they were, since this happened years ago). I forwarded the email to our technical head because he does the unlocking of the accounts. I wrote a note on the email that here's another customer who doesn't want to pay for unlocking his account. I was complaining and sounded really irritated in my email and asked the technical guy what to do with this customer. As soon as I hit the send button, which was real close to the "To:" field, I realized that the email written there was not the technical head's email but the customer's email address! I realized that the same time I hit the button! It was too late! I apparently hit the Reply button and not the Forward button. I was freaking out, and the technical head who was just sitting beside me asked me what the problem was (we communicate via email even if we were just sitting next to each other). I told him what happened and we tried to retrieve the email, but it was just too late. The customer received it already in his inbox.
I was waiting in vain for his reply. I was afraid the issue would be escalated to my boss and I would be in big trouble. A few minutes later, the customer replied. I was so scared to read his email. And then, surprisingly, he wasn't mad! He apologized for making such a request and he said that we were probably really busy and that he hoped we would still reconsider, and added a smiley face. Boy was I relieved!! I replied back to apologize, of course, saying that we will unlock his account as soon as possible. Whew! Everyone in the technical team were just laughing about it afterwards.
This is an example of a description error because the correct action was performed on the wrong object, due to their similarities. Because I was so stressed out that day, I accidentally clicked on the Reply button instead of the Forward button, which were just beside each other and didn't look different to me apparently at that time. I didn't bother to read the email address in the "To:" field either because it looked like an email address anyway, so it probably was the correct one.
Here's a short example of Associative Activation Error. I worked for a hotel back home doing P.R. and Marketing. It was a policy to have phone courtesy regardless of your position. Always answer a phone call with, "Diamond Hotel Philippines, this is Michelle, how may I help you?" they say. It was too long so instead I say, "Diamond Hotel Philippines, how may I help you?" I do this several times a day, 6 days a week. One time the phone rang at home, and guess what I said when I picked up the receiver? You guessed right. It was embarrassingly funny.
This is an example of associative activation error because the ringing of a phone for me was already internally associated to the phrase I use at work. So regardless where I am or where the phone is ringing, I automatically say the same thing.
The most horrible error I've ever done is a Loss-of-Activation type. It is a type of error wherein I simply forgot to do something. I remembered the rest of the action, but I forgot a part of the act. I drove to the mall with a friend in my old car. We parked and I guess we were so much involved in a conversation that we stepped out and manually locked the car, as we always do, at the same time.... and then I completely froze. I realized I left the keys in the ignition! Not only that, I left the car running. Stupid you say?! Well it wasn't the first time it happened to me!! I was so frustrated that it happened to me yet again. My friend and I had to take a cab back home just to get the spare key and come back to the mall again. And my house wasn't even near the area. Ugh! That car lacked all forcing functions. It allows you to lock the car with or without the key, hence allowing the possibility that you leave it inside the car, nor did it make an alarm sound notifying that you left the keys in the ignition. The car that I have now have these forcing functions, so I've never left my keys in the car nor have I left the car running with the keys locked inside.
One example may be categorized as a Description Error.
I used to work for an I.T. company and I was assigned particularly to the online movie ticketing project (similar to Fandango.com in the U.S.). One of my responsibilities was to do email technical support. It was a stressful day for me and a customer, among many others, emailed regarding a request to unlock his account. A customer who does not claim his/her ticket reservation for 3 consecutive times will have his/her account locked. It can be unlocked only by paying a certain fee.
One customer emailed requesting that his account be unlocked for so and so reasons (I don't remember what they were, since this happened years ago). I forwarded the email to our technical head because he does the unlocking of the accounts. I wrote a note on the email that here's another customer who doesn't want to pay for unlocking his account. I was complaining and sounded really irritated in my email and asked the technical guy what to do with this customer. As soon as I hit the send button, which was real close to the "To:" field, I realized that the email written there was not the technical head's email but the customer's email address! I realized that the same time I hit the button! It was too late! I apparently hit the Reply button and not the Forward button. I was freaking out, and the technical head who was just sitting beside me asked me what the problem was (we communicate via email even if we were just sitting next to each other). I told him what happened and we tried to retrieve the email, but it was just too late. The customer received it already in his inbox.
I was waiting in vain for his reply. I was afraid the issue would be escalated to my boss and I would be in big trouble. A few minutes later, the customer replied. I was so scared to read his email. And then, surprisingly, he wasn't mad! He apologized for making such a request and he said that we were probably really busy and that he hoped we would still reconsider, and added a smiley face. Boy was I relieved!! I replied back to apologize, of course, saying that we will unlock his account as soon as possible. Whew! Everyone in the technical team were just laughing about it afterwards.
This is an example of a description error because the correct action was performed on the wrong object, due to their similarities. Because I was so stressed out that day, I accidentally clicked on the Reply button instead of the Forward button, which were just beside each other and didn't look different to me apparently at that time. I didn't bother to read the email address in the "To:" field either because it looked like an email address anyway, so it probably was the correct one.
Here's a short example of Associative Activation Error. I worked for a hotel back home doing P.R. and Marketing. It was a policy to have phone courtesy regardless of your position. Always answer a phone call with, "Diamond Hotel Philippines, this is Michelle, how may I help you?" they say. It was too long so instead I say, "Diamond Hotel Philippines, how may I help you?" I do this several times a day, 6 days a week. One time the phone rang at home, and guess what I said when I picked up the receiver? You guessed right. It was embarrassingly funny.
This is an example of associative activation error because the ringing of a phone for me was already internally associated to the phrase I use at work. So regardless where I am or where the phone is ringing, I automatically say the same thing.
The most horrible error I've ever done is a Loss-of-Activation type. It is a type of error wherein I simply forgot to do something. I remembered the rest of the action, but I forgot a part of the act. I drove to the mall with a friend in my old car. We parked and I guess we were so much involved in a conversation that we stepped out and manually locked the car, as we always do, at the same time.... and then I completely froze. I realized I left the keys in the ignition! Not only that, I left the car running. Stupid you say?! Well it wasn't the first time it happened to me!! I was so frustrated that it happened to me yet again. My friend and I had to take a cab back home just to get the spare key and come back to the mall again. And my house wasn't even near the area. Ugh! That car lacked all forcing functions. It allows you to lock the car with or without the key, hence allowing the possibility that you leave it inside the car, nor did it make an alarm sound notifying that you left the keys in the ignition. The car that I have now have these forcing functions, so I've never left my keys in the car nor have I left the car running with the keys locked inside.
Monday, October 6, 2008
Revolving Door Phobia.
I've always been indifferent to doors, including the revolving ones.. until years back, when I stumbled upon a very compact automatic revolving door at a Victoria's Secret store in Chicago.
It was my first time to go through an automatic revolving door. I have never encountered one before so I did not know how it worked. I thought it was just an ordinary revolving door, which you push to get through. Anyway, this revolving door was very compact that if a lot of people were going through, you tend to be cramped in a small space while moving. Apparently this happened as I was going through. I was in front while several women were behind me. The door was moving by itself, very slowly so my first instinct was to push on the door to make it go faster. I was feeling claustrophobic so I wanted to get away from that door right away. Unfortunately, the door stopped moving and the girl behind me said in a very rude and sarcastic tone, "you're not supposed to touch it." WELL SORRY!!!!! I didn't even say anything to her, I was just furious. How was I supposed to know that I'm not supposed to touch it!?? There were no signs on the door that said "AUTOMATIC, DO NOT PUSH OR TOUCH!" At that moment I felt stupid for not knowing, but I felt furious as well because that girl did not have to be mean.
Since then I hated automatic revolving doors.
Photo taken from ccne.mofcom.gov.cn.
Sunday is Errand Day.
Yesterday was errand day for me. I had stuff to buy at the grocery plus I wanted to check out some store sales as well since I will also be in the mall area. I pretty much had a long to-do list, but I didn't want to bring my planner with me so I resorted to chunking them in my memory.
I divided them into 3 chunks: 1)Safeway, 2) Wallgreens, and 3)SF Shopping Mall. This was very easy to remember. Each chunk though is divided into several to-do/to-buy lists. Until now I even remember them.
Safeway: juice, body wash, gift cards, cookies
Wallgreens: check out coupons and buy the $1 container
SF Shopping Mall: visit Old Navy, Club Monaco and buy Panda Express gift card
If I consolidate the above lists into one list, I will definitely forget an item or two. But since I chunked them into separate store locations, I was able to remember them easily without having to write them down on paper.
I divided them into 3 chunks: 1)Safeway, 2) Wallgreens, and 3)SF Shopping Mall. This was very easy to remember. Each chunk though is divided into several to-do/to-buy lists. Until now I even remember them.
Safeway: juice, body wash, gift cards, cookies
Wallgreens: check out coupons and buy the $1 container
SF Shopping Mall: visit Old Navy, Club Monaco and buy Panda Express gift card
If I consolidate the above lists into one list, I will definitely forget an item or two. But since I chunked them into separate store locations, I was able to remember them easily without having to write them down on paper.
My Starbucks Planner.
To date, I have 3 Starbucks Planners. I find it odd though that they don't have it here in the U.S. where Starbucks originated. Maybe Americans don't use planners, I'm not really sure...
Anyway, back home in Manila, Starbucks Planners have started a few years back. One cannot buy it (except at Ebay of course), one can only earn it. November is when Starbucks starts giving away these cards with 24 small drawings of drinks. Each time you buy a drink, you get a sticker that they put on the drawing of a cup to indicate that you're one drink down. You have to complete all cups before you get your free Limited Starbucks Planner. What I love about these planners is that they are like collectibles. Their design changes every year plus they're made of sturdy materials so that they will last you the entire year. They also have enough spaces for the dates, so you can write a lot of to-do things. Aside from that, after buying your 24th cup of coffee, a donation will be given to a project of Starbucks and Unicef that provides learning programs to underprivileged communities in my country.
Ever since my Treo broke down, I've resorted to planners to keep me reminded of things. I simply cannot own another Treo or Blackberry for that matter because I always, always drop my phone (on the floor, on the pavement, or sometimes on the wall - deliberately, haha). So since then I've been collecting the Starbucks Planner. It is very useful to me because I have a lot of to-do things. I am very, very forgetful as well. I always have to write things down because there's just so many things I have to do at the same time, that I cannot remember all of them. Sometimes even, if I do not have my planner with me, I write them on the palm of my hand. That's when I miss my Treo, but so far I'm happy with my Starbucks Planner.
Where is Zara?
Last Friday I had a whole day class. I was planning to buy an outfit for a party that night and I figured I'll just buy one after class. Unfortunately, I had to stay late in class to finish a project. When I left, I realized I had only 2 hours to buy an outfit and rush home to get ready. I was freaking out.
My class was located near Union Square so I decided to walk towards the direction. I already knew what I wanted to buy, my only problem was finding the store in Union Square - Zara. Zara is one of my favorite stores back home, in Manila, and I'm so glad that they have it in the city too. I remember the area where it was located - sort of, but I didn't remember the street name. I was sort of in a panicky mode that I was walking around for minutes and I still couldn't find it! I resorted to 411. I tried 2 calls but they weren't able to help me - to think I spent a lot for those useless phone calls! I then resorted to asking a local. I saw a girl who didn't look like a visitor/tourist so I asked her if she knew where Zara was in Union Square. She didn't know either but she was so nice enough to check her Blackberry. She told me she'll just Google it. After a few minutes, she gave me the address: 250 Post St. and I was only 1 block away from it, geez. I thanked her for helping me and I ran off to Zara.
Thank God for approachable locals, Blackberrys and Google!
Photo taken from Semaforoverde.com.
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